This week, Bitcoin is not faring well.
First, over the weekend, the price of bitcoin fell to $8,200. On Monday, we were able to climb back above $9,000 only to drop back below $8,300.
Currently, we are trading around $8,925 in green while managing the daily trading volume of over $3 billion.
Last week, bitcoin climbed to $10,000 level but it has met with resistance as evident from the breakdown from this level, suggesting market’s “nervousness and hesitation.”
Now that the halving is behind us, the crowd sentiments are mixed.
Bullish or Bearish Outlook?
Trader and market analyst Bitcoin Jack’s three-month outlook remains bullish. Moving forward, he is expecting high volatility in both directions in May which will have a decent end. This volatility will then move to the June rally with support at the end of the month into August.
“Successful retest and continuation of previously broken diagonals is typical parabolic behavior and could hint we are developing one,” said the analyst.
According to him, mania is expected in June but that requires media coverage and sidelined fiat FOMO. This would make $14k-$15k possible.
Also, as we reported, April, May, and June are the best months of the year for bitcoin.
Miners are also making a case for the bull market. Miners sell their BTC to cover their operational costs as such are responsible for a large chunk of capital outflow from the bitcoin network.
Now that the bitcoin reward of miners is reduced 50%, the unprofitable smaller miners could relieve the market of inefficient selling, allowing the price to rise.
Recently, a poll held in China by crypto firm RockX revealed that 57% of Chinese miners expect a surge in new bitcoin buyers in the “near future.”
The popular Stock-to-Flow model also projects a rise in BTC price post halving.
Another bull case is made by trader Jonny Moe who points out, “We tapped the 200, we saved the 20 on the daily close, and we never truly reached the horizontal resistance at ~10.5.”
In the near term, we could push higher to test $10,500 but at the same time “mid-term downside wouldn’t be crazy,” he said.
The post halving markets are expected to see a correction because of “buy the rumor, sell the news,” as we have already started to see.
“The halving is a typical ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ event in which a rally occurs prior to the event. However, once people start to realize that the halving itself doesn’t have much impact and the hype goes away, a correction should be the most likely case to occur,” said trader Michaël Van de Poppe.