Annual house price growth in the UK has stagnated, latest lender index shows

Annual house price growth in the UK has stagnated this month with a rise of just 0.1% to an average of £211,966, according to the latest lender index.

This follows a subdued December when price growth slowed to 0.5% and in January prices were up by 0.3% compared with the previous month, the figures from the Nationwide show.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, pointed out that indicators of housing market activity, such as the number of sales and the number of mortgages approved for house purchase, have remained broadly stable in recent months.

But he warned that forward looking indicators have suggested some softening was likely. ‘In particular, measures of consumer confidence weakened in December and surveyors reported a further fall in new buyer enquiries towards the end of 2018,’ he explained.

‘While the number of properties coming onto the market also slowed, this doesn’t appear to have been enough to prevent a modest shift in the balance of demand and supply in favour of buyers in recent months,’ said Gardner.

He also pointed out that uncertainty is exerting a drag on the market. ‘It is likely that the recent slowdown is attributable to the impact of the uncertain economic outlook on buyer sentiment, given that it has occurred against a backdrop of solid employment growth, stronger wage growth and continued low borrowing costs,’ he added.

Looking ahead, near term prospects will be heavily dependent on how quickly the uncertainty lifts, but ultimately the outlook for the housing market and house prices will be determined by the performance of the wider economy, especially the labour market, according to Gardner.

‘The economic outlook remains unusually uncertain. However, if the economy continues to grow at a modest pace, with the unemployment rate and borrowing costs remaining close to current levels, we would expect UK house prices to rise at a low single digit pace in 2019,’ he concluded.