Almost two-thirds of landlords have no plans to sell their buy-to-let properties over the coming year…
Landlords remain optimistic about the buy-to-let market despite recent regulatory and tax changes, according to the latest Landlord Sentiment Survey by lettings agency Your Move.
In a survey of over 1,000 landlords, more than half (52%) felt positive about current market conditions, with almost two-thirds (64%) stating they were unlikely to sell a buy-to-let property in the next 12 months.
Just 16% expressed negative feelings towards the market, whilst 30% responded to the survey as being “indifferent”.
The poll also revealed that for 83% and 80% respectively, the most important considerations for landlords are the costs of upkeep and property maintenance, and the ability to make a long-term profit.
Brexit was the least pressing issue for landlords, with just 32% expressing concerns towards it, whilst under half (43%) regarded the upcoming tenant fees ban in England & Wales as a potential problem.
“Given the number of regulatory and tax changes in the buy to let market over the last few years, it wouldn’t be surprising if landlords felt some trepidation about the future,” said Martyn Alderton, national lettings director for Your Move and Reeds Rains.
“However, it’s great to see that the landlords we surveyed do, for the most part, remain positive about the future.”
He concluded: “Our research shows the majority of landlords are in it for the long term and that’s important for the well-being of the private rental sector, providing much needed homes for those who cannot yet afford, or do not wish to purchase due to lifestyle choices.”
House prices in England and Wales fell for the fifth month in succession, but some cities bucked the trend with Leicester recording the fastest growth, according to new data.
Overall, average house prices slipped 0.2 per cent in July to £302,251, figures compiled by Your Move show. Despite the fall, the average price is still up 1.6 per cent on a year ago and all regions of England and Wales have recorded “modest” growth on an annual basis.
Slow activity has held prices down with an estimated 75,000 fewer activities in July compared to June; 2 per cent down on June and 6 per cent lower than the seasonal trend. Transactions in the first seven months of 2018 are estimated to be 4 per cent below the same period in 2017.
The West Midlands recorded the fastest annual growth at 3.3 per cent while the South East and East of England were the slowest at 0.5 per cent.
What effect the Bank of England base rate rise at the start of August will have on the market remains to be seen, Your Move said.
The average price of a property In London now stands at £625,529 at the end of June with prices falling in almost two thirds (21 out of 33) of the city’s boroughs on an annual basis.
The biggest drops on an annual basis have been seen in the City of London, down 19.4 per cent (albeit on a small number of transactions), Hammersmith and Fulham, and Southwark, both down 11.7 per cent. In both Westminster and Hammersmith and Fulham, sales of new builds in previous months or years can explain much of the swing in prices.
Overall, the most expensive borough remains Kensington and Chelsea, where prices are down 1.9 per cent on an annual basis to £1,765,033, while the cheapest borough is still Barking and Dagenham, with an average price of 308,547, up 1.8 per cent annually.
U.K. house prices fell for the first time in seven months as sellers adapted to the reality of the weaker market.
Asking prices slipped 0.1 percent in July from a month earlier, property website Rightmove said on Monday. In London, prices slipped 0.5 percent, with smaller apartments falling faster than bigger homes.
The reduction in asking prices can “be a sign of a falling market,” Rightmove director Miles Shipside said. “With more price reductions at this time of year than in any of the last six years, there is likely to be a combination of both initial over-pricing and failure to react fast enough — or to reduce by enough — when initial buyer interest fails to lead to a sale.”
The British housing market is weakening after a three-decade boom amid slower economic growth and the uncertainty created by Brexit. London, where the average house price is more than double the national average, has been hit harder than the rest of the country. This month’s declines also reflect a normal summer slowdown in activity, Rightmove said.
A separate report by Acadata showed U.K. house prices fell 0.2 percent in June. Most regions in the U.K. still have higher house prices than a year ago, the property services firm said.
On an annual basis, Rightmove said house-price inflation slowed to 1.4 percent in July from 1.7 percent. In London, prices fell 1.7 percent from a year ago. The average U.K. asking price stood at 309,191 pounds ($400,000).
There are more sellers coming to the market than buyers, the report showed. The average number of houses in the window of each U.K. estate agency branch is at the highest since September 2015, meaning sellers are having to compete harder on price.
The slump is an opportunity for first-time buyers in London as properties with two bedrooms or fewer saw prices decline. The trendy borough of Hackney posted a 3.5 percent drop.
Other reports on Monday were more positive for the U.K. economy. Business confidence has reached a two-year high since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union — and was strongest in London — according to Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking. At the same time, consumer spending saw its first back-to-back monthly increase since early 2017, Visa’s Consumer Spending Index showed.
he value of Britain’s housing market has fallen by £26.9bn, or 0.33pc, since the start of the year, as growth in the North East and Wales has failed to counteract falling prices in many other regions across the country.
The nation’s homes decreased in value by an average of £927 each between Jan 1 and June 30 this year, and are now worth a collective £8.2 trillion, according to figures from property site Zoopla.
While the value of the housing market in the North East has risen by 3.31pc, and Wales’ by 1.4pc, poor-performing regions such as the South West, which endured a decline in value of 2.51pc, and Yorkshire and The Humber (-2.12pc), has dragged the overall market value down.
It marks a reversal of fortunes for the UK housing market, which registered an increase in value of 3.5pc in 2017, despite a slowdown in London and the South East.
Zoopla’s most recent data found that on a local level, the English town of Barrow-in-Furnessin Cumbria was the top-performer in terms of house price growth, with prices rising 6.7pc in the past six months. Holt in Norfolk experienced second-best growth of 6.27pc, followed by Pontypool in Torfaen (6.06pc).
By comparison, Reigate in Surrey saw price growth in the first half of 2018 decline in value by 6.7pc. The second and third largest reductions were seen in Lydney in Gloucestershire, and Sturminster Newton in Dorset, which reduced in value by 6.69pc and 6.64pc, respectively.
Despite property prices in London falling at their fastest rate since February 2009, the capital’s homes collectively rose in value by an average of 0.75pc in the six months to June 30.
Zoopla’s Laurence Hall said it was “not surprising” to see a small drop in values since the start of the year.
“Uncertainty around Brexit is a very real factor in the market, however on the positive side, the drop is creating a potential opportunity for first time buyers to get a foot on the ladder in some regions across Britain,” he said.
Analysts have blamed Brexit for the slowdown in the UK’s property market since 2016. House prices have risen more slowly than before the EU referendum, which hit consumer confidence and spending as the pound’s fall pushed up inflation.
According to figures from Nationwide in April, house prices were growing by about 5pc a year around the time of the Brexit vote, but in 2018 growth has consistently hovered around 1pc.
A buoyant property market depends on the UK’s economic health, so if the pound weakens further, inflation surges, and interest rates are raised, the capacity for house price growth would be reduced.
Equally, if Brexit negotiations are successful, economic growth continues to remain positive, and confidence is boosted, house prices could increase faster than initially thought.
Consumer confidence in the housing market has increased by its largest rate since 2016, according to the latest Housing Market Sentiment Survey by Zoopla.
Over eight in ten homeowners (84%) predict house prices in their area will grow by 6.9% over the next six months.
This is a marked increase on the previous survey held in November 2017, when a price increase of 4.9% was forecast by 70% of consumers.
The East Midlands remains the most confident region, with 93% expecting prices to rise compared to 79% in November’s survey, closely followed by the East of England (90%).
Although North Eastern homeowners have the least optimism, market confidence has nearly trebled in the region from 22% in November to 63%. In London, 76% of consumers are anticipating prices in the capital to grow.
However, in terms of the rate at which prices are predicted to rise, homeowners in the West Midlands are the most optimistic, predicting property prices in the region will grow by 10.6% in the next six months.
Zoopla believes that the rise in confidence is a result of wider activity in the housing market, due to a seasonal increase in momentum.
Interest rates could stay low for as long as another two years, as falling inflation and weak economic growth force the Bank of England to scrap plans to push up rates in the coming months.
Mark Carney is expected to hold rates at 0.5pc at Thursday’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, postponing a highly-anticipated rate rise for at least three months. The freeze will disappoint savers who have laboured under historically low rates for almost a decade – and a boon to borrowers who get extra time with cheap money.
But economists now suspect that inflation will keep falling quickly towards the Bank’s 2pc target, making it harder for policymakers to raise the rate.
Poor GDP growth at the start of this year and signs of a slowing global economy could also dent the Bank’s longer-term inflation estimates.
If that forces it to cut back its inflation forecast then the case for higher rates could evaporate altogether.
“They are stuck. The Bank can’t raise rates now, the economic numbers have been too weak recently,” said Martin Beck at Oxford Economics. “They should not have raised rates in November, closed the term funding scheme or worried that credit growth was too strong – those three things have contributed to the economy slowing.”
Markets are currently pricing in only two rate rises by August 2019, but George Buckley, an economist at Nomura, thinks even this may be too many if inflation is slowing sharply.
“Should the Bank publish a forecast with inflation below target based on market rates that would be quite a statement, as it would imply that even limited market pricing for rate hikes might prove too much,” he said.
UniCredit’s Daniel Vernazza believes it will be at least another year before rates rise to 0.75pc.
Kallum Pickering at Berenberg Bank fears the Bank has missed its chance. “They should have hiked by this stage of the economic cycle, but they cannot do it now because of the soft data,” he said.
The number of families with children living in rented property tripled between 2003-2016…
The Resolution Foundation has proposed a series of reforms aimed at protecting tenants and landlords in the private rented sector.
According to the think-tank’s research, half of all millennials – people born between 1980 and 1996 – will be living in rented property up to their 40s, whilst a third are likely to be renting beyond retirement.
Furthermore, four out of ten millennials aged 30 are already renting, double the rate of the previous generation and four times that of baby boomers, whilst the number of families with children lived in the private rented sector has grown substantially, from 0.6m in 2003 to 1.8m in 2016.
Although they acknowledge the policies the government has introduced to make housing more accessible for first time buyers, the Resolution Foundation argues that more needs to be done to provide greater security for those that rely on renting.
This includes short-term measures such as proposals for indeterminate tenancies, which are essentially open-ended leases. Such tenancies are already in use in parts of Europe, including Scotland.
A new tribunal system could also be created, in order to resolve disputes in a timely and cost-effective manner.
Lindsay Judge, a senior analyst at the Resolution Foundation, notes that support needs to be available across all areas of the housing market: “While there have been some steps recently to support housebuilding and first-time buyers, up to a third of millennial still face the prospect of renting from cradle to grave.
“If we want to tackle Britain’s ‘here and now’ housing crisis we have to improve conditions for the millions of families living in private rented accommodation.”
Strong demand for city-centre living, a huge student population and urban regeneration make Manchester one of the best-performing property markets in Britain
Manchester, benefitting from the recent £1bn investment as part of the Government’s Northern Powerhouse initiative, is showing itself to be a vibrant, forward-thinking metropolis with the most attractive city centre investment market in Britain, according to JLL.
The property specialist company rates Manchester as its No 1 prospect for residential price growth over the next five years, with the annual average growth of 4.2pc compared with 2.4pc across the UK. Rents are expected to increase by around 3.5pc per annum between now and 2020.
Pivotal to the recent success of Manchester is a revival in demand for city-centre living
House prices grew by 10pc in 2017, with the average two-bedroom flat now costing £250,000 (an increase of 8.7pc over 2017), and rental prices rose by 3pc, according to JLL’s latest research.
Pivotal to Manchester’s success is a revival in demand for city-centre living – a trend that was at its height before the 2008 recession, which collapsed along with house prices due to sheer oversupply.
In 2000 there were 10,000 people living in the heart of the city. Now there are nearly 70,000, many of them students or young professionals with a desire to live close to where they work and play.
“City living has gained strong momentum in Manchester over the past three years and, together with an active student market, has pushed demand in both the sales and lettings markets noticeably higher,” says Neil Chegwidden, of JLL residential research.
“And with housing supply in the city centre severely constrained, prices and rents have soared.”
For investors with an eye on Manchester, its student population of more than 85,000, spread among four universities, plays a crucial role.
The city has the highest retention rate of students after London, with 50pc choosing to stay after they graduate. Six in 10 Manchester-born students who go to university elsewhere also return to their home town after graduation.
Nick Whitten, JLL’s director of UK research, says: “You can see the reasons. They already know they enjoy living there and there are plentiful employment opportunities and affordable housing.
“More new businesses are coming to the city than anywhere else in the UK, outside London. Many of them are first-time investors in the city, which is a reflection of Manchester’s growing profile.”
Manchester: a market snapshot
Average house price growth in Manchester over next five years
Average cost of a two-bedroom flat in Manchester
How much the government has invested in the Northern Powerhouse initiative
Number of people now living in Manchester city centre
The young demographic is also a driving force in the number of rental properties in Manchester – which constitute two-thirds of the city centre’s housing stock. A fast-emerging trend is a build-to-rent market, which accounts for a large proportion of the 30 new residential developments currently being built.
“Professionally managed blocks of rental apartments with leisure facilities and concierge services are forcing private landlords to up their game, which is a positive thing.
“Shortly, we could see landlords offering similar white-label services such as local discounts and access to a network of handymen to stay competitive,” says Mr Whitten.
JLL identifies nine Manchester “sub-markets” that offer potential to investors, including the centrally located Northern Quarter, Piccadilly and Castlefields, with its urban canalside living. St John’s Deansgate has become a prime market, with sales there last year regularly exceeding £500 per square foot.
Across the River Irwell, suburban Salford is prominent on the radar of the millennial market seeking a lower-priced, higher-quality alternative to city-centre living.
Salford is also a key focus for buy-to-let investors, with Salford Quays now the UK’s second-biggest media hub, home to 80 media organisations.
“It has the benefits of being well connected to the city centre but better value in property terms. There are 7,500 homes in some phase of development in the Salford City Fringe, and Salford Quays attracts a professional audience, which makes it a good place to invest,” says Mr Whitten.
He thinks that another area to watch is Ancoats and New Islington, whose regeneration is largely funded by the owners of Manchester City Football Club.
As the momentum and investment continue in creating the Northern Powerhouse, Manchester is arguably the poster city and the greatest beneficiary so far, with a new arts centre, two new research institutes and improved transport infrastructure.
It has also seen the highest rate of job creation in the country, with the number of new jobs growing by 84pc between 1999 and 2015.
After years of blockbuster growth, home prices have reversed course and are expected to drop further over the next year. The number of sales has dropped, and more homeowners are pulling properties off the market.
The dour outlook comes courtesy of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), which warned in a report on Thursday that weakness in London had caused its UK house price indicator to hit a five-year low.
The government has in recent years hiked taxes on property purchases, making it more expensive to buy luxury housing, second homes and investment properties. Doing so has scared off some wealthy investors and caused prices to slump in central London.
Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has also hurt the market, with potential buyers putting their plans on hold because of the economic uncertainty.
One property professional surveyed by RICS said that Brexit and the tax changes had “killed the liquidity of the London market.”